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RATTLING SABERS IN IRAN'S FACE
by Dale Brown, 2009

ARTICLE ORIGINALLY APPEARED AT Facebook.com/AuthorDaleBrown, 08/05/2009

Lots of cool and probably all related incidents regarding Israel, the U.S., and Iran:

First, the elections and subsequent protests against Pres. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's re-election. Surely Israel and the U.S. see a crack opening in Iran--maybe the government doesn't have the full support of the people any longer.

Second: the G-8 nations set a timetable of September for Iran to start cooperating on its nuclear program or face more stringent sanctions (although I don't really believe the G-8 is very serious about it).

Third: Israel sorties a frigate and an attack submarine through the Suez Canal--presumed destination, the Gulf of Oman, off Iran's southern coast, possibly even the Persian Gulf. Although not really capable of land attack, the ships could definitely support special ops and covert agents inside Iran, as well as attack Iran's larger ships in the Straits of Hormuz. The ships could also help support a blockade of Iranian ports if the G-8 decides to block shipments of gasoline to Iran.

Fourth: The Times of London reported that an unnamed Western intelligence source says that Iran has already developed a nuclear weapon capable of being fitted onto an Iranian ballistic missile, and they are just awaiting the Ayatollah Khameini's order to build it. The source also said that the U.S.'s National Intelligence Estimate, which said Iran had shut down its nuclear program in 2003, was wrong, because Iran had already shifted from nuclear weapon development to production.

Fifth: Israel puts in a first-time order for U.S.-made Laser Joint Direct Attack Munitions, which are guidance kits that give "dumb" bombs highly precise guidance, even against moving targets (as fast as 85 mph), using GPS and laser illumination.

Sixth: the U.S. Air Force announces it is accelerating development of the MOP, or Massive Ordnance Penetrator, a 30,000 lb. GPS-guided bomb that can reportedly penetrate up to 200 feet of reinforced concrete before detonating. A B-2A Spirit stealth bomber carrying two MOPs could destroy an underground facility (like Iran's nuclear labs and uranium enrichment plants) virtually undetected.

Remember: the first casualty in any war is the truth.

Also remember Sun-Tzu: every war is won before the war begins.

Israel definitely feels itself squarely in Iran's crosshairs--even more so after Ahmadinejad's re-election and the cool relations so far between Obama and Netanyahu. I am sure Israel has asked Washington for support for a strike against Iran, and Washington has pleaded for restraint, ramped up the propaganda machines, and opened wide the back-channel communications lines to Tehran.

This is Obama's greatest foreign policy test. If Iran doesn't cooperate, and Israel says it's going to act with or without us, what will Obama do? The U.S. has over 160,000 troops in Iraq and Afghanistan, surrounding Iran; there is one U.S. aircraft carrier battle group and one Marine Expeditionary Strike Group within range--a sizeable force, but not Desert Storm-size, and probably not enough to defeat Iran. Would Obama use some of those forces to assist Israel in a surprise attack? Would he even allow Israel to use Iraqi airspace?

I'm certainly not hoping for war--but it IS interesting to watch the propaganda machines hum and the chess pieces slowly being moved into place.

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